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Showing posts with label stress tests. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stress tests. Show all posts
Forex − EUR/GBP, GBP/USD Flows − GBP slips ahead of the data
Posted by Usman Ali Minhas
on
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
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forex,
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International Trading
GBP is on the back foot again ahead of the July inflation data, EUR/GBP testing yesterday's high, asking some questions of model fund shorts and also frustrating Cable offers at 1.5700. We doubt the modellers will be in a hurry to step out ahead of the data, especially given that the Inflation Report last week seemed to show the BoE MPC's mind is made up on interest rates already. PB
Forex: EUR/USD extends below 1.2800
Posted by Usman Ali Minhas
on
Friday, August 13, 2010
, under
Rob Booker's,
simple forex,
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Technical Daily Analysis,
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U.S Market Update
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International Trading
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Euro has resumed its decline from 1.3335 high on Monday and, after a timid recovery attempt, which was capped at 1.2935, the pair has given away gains, to extend below 1.2800 to reach fresh to week lows.
On the downside, below the 100 day-MA, at 1.2805, Valeria Bednarik, technical analyst at FXstreet.com, sees the pair dropping towards 1.2760/70, and then 1.2730: "Lose of 1.2805 should signal a downside continuation towards 1.2760/70 area first, and even extend later towards 1.2730 zone."
On the upside, 1.2850 would trigger bulls for a rally towards 1.2890/1.2910, says Bednarik: "Watch an acceleration above 1.2850 to send the pair towards 1.2890/1.2910 zone, where 200 EMA in the 4 hours charts, should limit further rises."EUR/USD (Aug 14 at 06:42 GMT)
1.2749/54 (-0.02%)
H 1.27585 L 1.27495
S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 1.2715 1.2747 1.2778 1.2792 1.2824 1.2856
[ View EUR/USD Technical Studies ][?]Trend Index [?]OB/OS Index Strongly Bullish Neutral Data updated on Aug 13 at 18:45 (15-minute timeframe)
Forex: Euro consolidates at 1.2860
Posted by Usman Ali Minhas
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forex rate,
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Forex Train,
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International Trading
FXstreet.com (Buenos Aires) – After finding an intraday bottom at 1.2780, Euro recovered part of the strong loses posted this week, and consolidates at 1.2860 price zone. Wall Street despite some intraday gains remains negative with DJIA down 41 pints and S&P losing 0.47%, limiting further recoveries as risk aversion environment continues to weight in the common currency.
According to Nick Nasad from CMS Forex, today’s weaker euro zone data (industrial production printed a 0.1% fall past month) along with Greek economy contracting another 1.5% in the 2nd quarter of the year, “hurt sentiment during European trading, causing the Euro (and Pound) to slide against the greenback”. He also adds, that “this week continues with volatile trading in the currency markets as investors continue to digest incoming news about the world’s main economies and shift expectations about global growth”, anticipating further doubts for the last day of the week.EUR/USD (Aug 14 at 06:46 GMT)
1.2749/54 (-0.02%)
H 1.27585 L 1.27495
S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 1.2715 1.2747 1.2778 1.2792 1.2824 1.2856
[?]Trend Index [?]OB/OS Index Strongly Bullish Neutral Data updated on Aug 13 at 18:45 (15-minute timeframe)
Stocks Steady after ECB, BoE Rate Decisions; Focus Remains on Jobs Data
Posted by Usman Ali Minhas
on
Thursday, August 5, 2010
, under
gold trade,
International Trading,
Marco Mayer's,
online earning,
Online Forex Trading Introduction,
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International Trading
U.S. equity markets are trading flat in limited trading despite rallies in the Euro and British Pound. Earlier in the week, strength in both of these markets triggered rallies in stocks as traders demanded risky assets.
Earlier this morning, the European Central Bank and Bank of England policymakers voted to leave interest rates unchanged. Stocks failed to move on the news as it was already priced into the market. The press conference by ECB President Trichet could move the markets, if he announces an exit strategy now that it appears the Euro Zone economy is on the road to recovery.
Stocks firmed late Wednesday after trading in a tight range throughout the day following a good ADP employment report. Today another piece of the employment puzzle will be revealed in the form of weekly initial claims. Both of these reports are leading up to Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Early guesses are for this report to show a decline of 65,000 to 90,000 jobs. The Fed will also be watching this report closely as it will be a strong determinant in next week’s monetary policy decision.
After an early reaction to the initial claims report, volume may dry up today ahead of tomorrow’s big report, leading to a choppy, sideways trade.
Treasury futures are at a key juncture on the charts. Yesterday the September T-Notes made a new high for the year as yields plunged. The lower close, however, helped form a closing price reversal top which could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day break.
September Treasury Bonds also had a reversal down, but the pattern suggests the possible formation of a bearish secondary lower top formation.
Although the Fed is expected to keep interest rates low and may implement another round of quantitative easing, sentiment has shifted toward risky assets, putting pressure on the lower yielding Treasuries.
December Gold is trading flat this morning, following a strong five day rally. The main trend is still down despite the rally with the market stopping short of taking out the recent main top at $1207.50. A move through this price will turn the main trend to up. If weakness develops today, then look for the start of a correction back to $1182.40 over the near-term. At this price level, traders will have to decide whether to form a secondary higher bottom or resume the downtrend.
On Thursday the Bank of England policymakers voted to leave its benchmark interest rate at the historically low 0.5%. This move was expected because BoE officials are still unsure what the effect the newly implemented austerity measures will have on the economy. Furthermore, there is still uncertainty over what the upcoming new taxes will have on economic growth. Some investors feel the central bank will have to remain flexible with its monetary policy in case the developing economic recovery stalls.
Lately the British Pound has been trending higher, reaching a major retracement zone. Most of this move has been driven by speculators looking for improvements in the U.K. economy while the U.S. economy falters. The recent Second Quarter GDP Report was better than expected; leading some investors to believe the economy is on the road to recovery. Skeptics cite the fact that this reading took place before the austerity measures were implemented.
High inflation has also had investors worried. One of the challenges for the Bank of England will be controlling inflation without stifling growth. Uncertainty over how the BoE intends to do this may limit gains and could begin to put pressure on the Sterling.
Technically, the British Pound found resistance at a key .618 retracement level earlier this week at 1.5967. Holding this level could trigger the start of a break back to 1.5635. Overnight the Sterling traded below 1.5884, putting this currency lower for the week. The market bottomed early in the trading session and put in a short-term top shortly after the central bank announcement.
Although the Pound is trading higher shortly before the New York opening, gains could be limited as traders stand aside ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. This report will offer more insight into the state of the economy and influence the Fed’s monetary policy decision at next week’s FOMC meeting. There is speculation that the Fed will renew its quantitative easing program. This along with low interest rates could keep downside pressure on the Dollar.
U.S. Dollar Forecast To Fall Further Against Euro, British Pound, and Japanese Yen
Posted by Usman Ali Minhas
on
Thursday, July 29, 2010
, under
International Trading,
online earning,
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PREVIEW: EU banking stress tests,
Rob Booker's,
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International Trading
The FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index is an excellent tool to gauge trader positioning and sentiment in the FX market. Unlike major equities or futures markets, there is no single centralized exchange for forex trading. Such decentralized activity makes finding uniform volume or open interest data impossible. DailyFX fills the gap by offering access to FXCM’s proprietary volume and positioning information—giving an unparalleled view of forex market sentiment.LastWeek Present %Long Change: Open Interest Signals EUR/USD -1.33 -1.69 57.0% -9.1% Bullish GBP/USD -1.16 -1.76 56.0% 2.4% Bullish USD/JPY 4.89 4.97 83.0% 4.0% Bearish USD/CHF 3.77 5.87 79.0% 6.4% Bearish USD/CAD 1.82 2.57 72.0% 4% Bearish GBP/JPY 1.45 -1.13 45.0% 1.1% Bullish Euro Forecast To Gain Versus US Dollar
EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.69 as nearly 63% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.50 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.1% lower than yesterday and 2.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.0% higher than yesterday and 28.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.8% weaker than yesterday and 103.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.British Pound Turnaround May Be On The Horizon
GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.76 as nearly 64% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.74 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 0.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.8% higher than yesterday and 54.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.4% stronger than yesterday and 133.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.Japanese Yen Positioning Remains At Extreme Levels
USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 4.97 as nearly 83% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.47 as 78% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.5% higher than yesterday and 16.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 22.1% lower than yesterday and 7.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.0% stronger than yesterday and 126.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.Swiss Franc May Continue To Strengthen Against The Dollar
USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.87 as nearly 79% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.48 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 18.6% higher than yesterday and 31.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 23.9% lower than yesterday and 11.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.4% stronger than yesterday and 137.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.Canadian Dollar Forecast To Break Below Narrow Range
USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.57 as nearly 72% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.19 as 69% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 9.1% higher than yesterday and 32.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.2% lower than yesterday and 2.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.0% stronger than yesterday and 145.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.British Pound Forecast To Advance Against Yen
GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.13 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.33 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.3% higher than yesterday and 4.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.8% lower than yesterday and 77.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.1% stronger than yesterday and 137.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.Weekly Overview
Speculative Sentiment Index Points to Further U.S. DeclinesChoppy U.S. dollar price action has led to mixed Forex trading crowd sentiment, moderating our conviction in calling for further USD weakness. Our sentiment-based algorithmic trading strategy remains short the U.S. dollar against the British Pound and the euro, while positioning in the USDJPY calls for additional declines as the ratio is up from 3.47 yesterday, and unchanged from last week. Indecisiveness across the FX markets makes it difficult to a make short-term forecast with assurance. However, market participants are sure to keep an eye on further developments as they may prove important in deciding market direction for the greenback.
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