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International Trading
Czech Republic
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Industry in Central Europe tracks strong German dataThe August data on industrial output in the Czech Republic and Hungary show that the upswing in Central Europe continues. This is well in line with the outstanding performance of German industry, to which Hungarian and Czech industries are tied very closely.In addition, a very positive phenomenon in both Central Europe and Germany is the level of new contracts that still remains very high. That’s very good news as the fiscal stimuli (such as scrapping bonuses) that positively influenced the performance of Central European industry, which is very strongly oriented on exports, have run out of steam.Nevertheless, despite the highly positive results of Central European industry in recent months, we are afraid that this won’t continue necessarily given the fiscal tightening within the euro area in 2011, along with the inventory replenishment process slowly drawing to a close,. This will have a negative impact on exports and consequently on industrial growth in the region. Another argument against the optimistic expectation that industry will maintain its fast rise is associated with the fact that Hungarian and Czech industries will not be able to utilise the ever-improving demand from Asia to such a great extent as, for example, the German economy. The reason is that the exports from Central European countries to the Asian continent are negligible, representing approximately 5% of all exports.
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