Euro Weakness Could Mean Risk is Off Today; Stocks Flat to Lower
International Trading
THE TECHNIQUE OF GIVING A GOOD MASSAGE
14 years ago
Monday, October 4, 2010
, Posted by Usman Ali Minhas at 12:08 PM
Weakness in the Euro could be translating into a risk-off trading session today in the U.S. equity markets. Although they are not moving together closely to the upside, last night’s reversal down in the Euro appears to have triggered a pre-session sell-off in the December E-mini S&P 500.
Recent rallies in the E-mini appear to have been labored with sellers waiting to pounce on each strong rise. Since September 21 there have been three closing price reversal tops, but losses have been limited by the lack of a strong follow-through to the downside.
Technically the E-mini looks weak this morning, having violated a major uptrending Gann angle on the daily chart at 1140.50. This angle is likely to act as a pivot today and should control the direction of the market.
The daily chart is indicating that there is a floor of support at 1128.00 to 1122.00. In other words, the old tops at 1122.00, 1124.50 and 1128.00 are now the new support. Look for weakness to develop if this area is violated with conviction. Otherwise, one has to conclude that this market is developing a bottom for the new higher range that is possibly forming.
Based on the daily swing chart, all we can conclude is this market is in a corrective mode unless 1117.25 is violated. A move through this price will turn the main trend to down.
The December Euro is retreating this morning, after an initial surge, on renewed concerns about the impact of the Euro Zone’s sovereign debt woes.
The Euro was up early in the Asian trading session, boosted by week-end remarks by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.
Jiabao helped the Euro when he said “We hope that by intensifying cooperation with you, we can be of some help in your endeavor to tide over difficulties at an early date,” Wen said in a speech to the Greek parliament, according to The Wall Street Journal. “China will not reduce its euro-bond holdings and China supports a stable euro.”
This strong endorsement initially underpinned the Euro until Nobel Prize-winning economist, Joseph Stigliz, warned of sovereign debt threats to the stability of the Euro Region, eroding Jiabao’s bullish spin, and forcing investors to once again face the reality of debt problems in Spain, Ireland and other peripheral nations.
In addition to the Stigliz comments, the Euro was weakened by a further rise in Spanish unemployment.
It was reported last night that Stiglitz said in his book “Freefall” that governments around the world may have attempted to cut deficits too quickly, thereby setting up the possibility of a double-dip recession.
He also warned that the Euro Zone may not survive if competitive tensions continue within the region.
The break this morning in the Euro looks as if investors are paring positions as a precaution against a further acceleration in sovereign debt woes. There doesn’t appear to be any structural damage to the up trend, however, a closing price reversal is developing which could translate into a sizeable correction if confirmed.
Normal profit-taking may also be taking place as the Euro edges toward a major Fibonacci level at 1.3896. Besides a reversal top, a break under a major 50% level at 1.3510 will also be a sign that selling pressure is building.
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