International Trading

Inflation slowdown should have been energy−driven

Saturday, September 11, 2010 , Posted by Usman Ali Minhas at 12:28 PM

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  • National HICP data so far available suggest little risk of a revision to the eurozone August flash estimate. The final release out on Wednesday should therefore confirm the preliminary 1.6% yoy, with the ex-tobacco reading showing a slowdown to1.5% yoy. On a monthly basis, prices probably rose 0.2% on both metrics. 
  • The whole inflation slowdown should have been energy-driven, while food inflation likely posted a further moderate acceleration in yoy terms and core inflation held steady at 1%. 
  • Our preliminary forecast for September currently signals a renewed acceleration in headline inflation to 1.8% yoy (1.7% on the ex-tobacco index).

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