International Trading

We continue to peg resistance for gold at the $1280 level

Thursday, September 16, 2010 , Posted by Usman Ali Minhas at 11:28 PM

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Market Commentary

Key Notes: Economic data released yesterday highlighted that the economic recovery remains uneven. While U.S. initial jobless claims declined, manufacturing in the Philadelphia area contracted unexpectedly. The uncertain outlook boosted gold as an alternative asset and gold surged to another new record high. Spot gold reached an intra-day high of $1277.70, just below our established resistance of $1280. 
Ahead, the U.S. will release the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for September. This may set the tone for the markets. Currently, the index is expected to inch up to 70.0 in September from 68.9 in August. A stronger than expected reading may ease investors’ worries of slowing consumer spending and lower expectations that the Fed may restart quantitative easing. This may limit gold’s upside for today. We continue to peg resistance for gold at the $1280 level. 

Market Summary

  • Precious Metals: Gold hit a new record high yesterday for the second time this week. Spot gold reached an intra-day high of $1277.70. Gold benefited from greater economic uncertainty as economic data was disappointing. British retail sales fell unexpectedly, for the first time in seven months. The Philly Fed index showed that factory activity in the U.S. mid Atlantic region contracted for the second straight month in September. Silver continued its rally to almost $21 an ounce, extending its winning streak to five days.
  • Crude Oil: Crude oil fell nearly 2%, sliding for a third day. U.S. Midwest supply anxieties were eased further on news that a major Canadian pipeline carrying crude to the region would be back in service by Friday. Crude dropped to a session low of $74.11. Prices were also pressured by mixed U.S. data that confirmed that the economy remains on a slow growth path. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said its general economic index rose to minus 0.7 in September from minus 7.7 in August.
  • Currencies: The yen fell against the U.S. dollar on Thursday with the Bank of Japan silent after investors were reluctant to place bets against the yen, wary that the central bank may intervene again in the currency market. Prime Minister Naoto Kan reiterated on Thursday Japan would take decisive steps on yen strength, Jiji news agency reported, while Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said he expected intervention would stabilize the forex market. The euro rose to its highest in more than a month against the dollar as strong demand at a Spanish bond auction reinforced confidence in Europe’s economic recovery.
  • Indices: The S&P 500 slipped 0.04%, paring an initial drop of as much as 0.6%. This was as FedEx Corp.’s profit forecast trailed estimates and U.K. retail sales unexpectedly decreased. Alcoa Inc. and Bank of America Corp. lost at least 1.2% for the biggest declines in the Dow Jones. The losses were tempered by Hewlett-Packard Co. and Cisco Systems Inc., which rose at least 1.5%, helping the Dow to gain 22.10 points to 10,594.83. 

Key Events/Data To Look Out For:

  • US: UOM sentiments. 
  • Euro: Germany Producer Prices.

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