International Trading


Sep. 10, 2010 (Allthingsforex.com) – The consumer spending, industrial activity and inflation data from the world’s largest economy will guide the direction for equities, commodities and currencies in the week ahead.   

In preparation for the new trading week, here is a list of the Top 10 spotlight economic events that every currency trader should pay attention to.  

1.    EUR- Euro-zone Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, Mon., Sep. 13, 5:00 am, ET.  

The industrial activity in the Euro-zone is expected to rise by 0.2% m/m in August from the 0.1% m/m decline in July. 

2.    GBP- U.K. CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation preferred by the Bank of England, Tues., Sep. 14, 4:30 am, ET. 

August could be the first month in a long time when we could see the U.K. inflationary pressures below the Bank of England’s 3.0% ceiling as the inflation gauge is forecasted to reach 2.9% y/y from 3.1% y/y in July. 

3.    EUR- Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions and business expectations in the Euro-zone’s largest economy, Tues., Sep. 14, 5:00 am, ET.

The ZEW survey could provide an early warning sign of a slowdown in the largest economy in the Euro-zone with a reading of 10.0 compared with 14.0 in the previous month.  

4.    USD- U.S. Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending measuring the total receipts at retail establishments, Tues., Sep. 14, 8:30 am, ET.

In light of some of the recent glimpses of hope from the labor market, the U.S. retail sales could instill optimism in the market after what is expected to be another positive month with sales at retail establishments up by 0.3% m/m in August following the 0.4% increase in July.

5.    EUR- Euro-zone HICP- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, the main measure of inflation in the Euro-zone and the European Union’s equivalent to the CPI- Consumer Price Index, Wed., Sep. 15, 5:00 am, ET. 

Inflationary pressures in the Euro-zone are expected to remain subdued at 1.6% y/y in August, down from 1.7% y/y in July. 

6.    USD- U.S. Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, Wed., Sep. 15, 9:15 am, ET. 

Manufacturing activity, which has been a leader of the U.S. economic recovery, is forecasted to show a smaller rise in industrial output by 0.2% m/m, compared with the 1.0% m/m increase in the previous month. 

7.    NZD- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Announcement, Wed., Sep. 15, 5:00 pm, ET.   

Due to the uncertain outlook and the threat of a global economic slowdown, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could decide that it would be prudent to keep the current 3.0% benchmark interest rate level unchanged at this meeting, while still leaving the door open to further rate hikes in the months ahead. 

8.    CHF- Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Announcement, Thurs., Sep. 16, 8:00 am, ET. 

With inflation no longer a threat to the economy and the EUR lingering near all-time lows vs. CHF, the bank’s policy makers would be likely to keep monetary policy accommodative at the record low rate of 0.25%. Traders should keep an eye on any statements or remarks from the bank’s policy makers following the announcement for signs of the Swiss National Bank’s willingness to continue intervening in the currency market to curb the strength of the Swiss franc.   

9.    USD- U.S. CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation in the world’s largest economy, Fri., Sep. 17, 8:30 am, ET.

The report could confirm the expectations for subdued inflationary pressures in the U.S. as the month-over-month index of consumer prices rises by 0.3% m/m and the Core CPI registers a small 0.1% m/m increase in August.   

10.   USD- U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan's monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, Fri., Sep. 17, 9:55 am, ET.

The outlook of U.S. consumers could show a slight improvement with consensus forecasts pointing to a reading of 69.5, up from 68.9 in the previous month.