International Trading

Pound remains with this Tuesday, having failed to even trigger a bullish corrective movement. Still daily low around 1.5360 is holding, so unless a break lower, pair seems aiming for an upside corrective movement: above 1.5430, pair should accelerate towards 1.5470 first, and 1.5520 later if trend manages to hold.

Under daily low, downside will be exposed again with next support and probable target, around 1.5310/20 support zone.

View Live Chart for the GBP/USD (Select the currency)

International Trading


Risk aversion continued overnight as Asian stock markets traded lower. The Nikkei 225 plunged by -3.55% experiencing its largest percent drop since early June as investors fear that a stronger yen will hurt the export-driven economy. The U.S. dollar traded mostly mixed, the yen remained at elevated levels, and the Swiss franc was the most notable having outperformed the safe haven currencies. EUR/CHF fell to new records lows touching just under 1.2900 and USD/CHF is nearing 2010 lows on a strengthening franc. USD/CHF has so far made session lows around 1.0175.
Japanese economic data came in stronger than expected last night. July preliminary industrial production was expected at -0.2% but rose by +0.3% up from the prior -1.1%, July retail trade also printed better than expected at +0.7% (cons. +0.5% prior +0.4%), and July housing starts surprised to the upside with a reading of +4.3% (cons. 2.0% prior +0.6%). The positive economic data further supported the yen. USD/JPY declined to around 84.05 from session highs around 84.65 and has settled around current levels of 84.40.
As of now, European equities are trading lower across the board. Month-end flows and the heavy economic data stream today is likely to make for a volatile trading environment.
On that data front today we have Canada’s 2Q annualized GDP at 0830EDT. U.S. economic data is heavy today and includes the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index at 0900EDT, Chicago PMI at 0945EDT, Conference Board consumer confidence at 1000EDT and the FOMC minutes are to be released at 1400EDT.

International Trading

We are consolidating inside a channel and the failure to take out the .618 Fibo is bearish for the cross. The cross is sitting on strong support @ 0.8861 (R2). Will expect a run back to the bottom of the channel at 0.8772. A break north should produce a move back to the .500 fibo at 0.9008.

International Trading

The stream of macro data during the past few weeks, specially the later one, is leading global markets to price that the US growth in 2H10 will turn out to be worse than initially expected. On this point, the probability of an abrupt halt, albeit still low, is also increasing. Some demand components, mainly residential and non-residential investment and employment, are evolving below our expectations thereby suggesting an alarming weakness which preludes even darker clouds on the horizon. Nonetheless, downside surprises are so far not quite large enough to already consider such a picture. Next week’s private payroll will be a relevant test to gauge the feasibility of a gloomier scenario. The release of the FOMC minutes will also be a key event, together with the ISM surveys for August, as recent info reveals a deep split within the Committee that will meet again on September 21st. If economic data follows current trends, we can not discard this meeting to be a decisive venue in terms of whether keeping policy unchanged or taking further easing actions.

In Europe, on the contrary, 3Q data is still consistent with a robust growth, although the recovery is losing some steam, in line with our projections for 2H10. Germany also continues outperforming the remainder of the Eurozone after the release of soft data for August this week. Nonetheless, we also expect German activity to slow in coming quarters as the global recovery falters.

Markets

Highlights

Calendar: Indicators

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International Trading

International Trading

EUR/USD Current price: 1.2703

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5403

USD/JPY Current price: 84.38

USD/CHF Current price: 1.0175

International Trading

Asian growth momentum has lost some steam in the third quarter, but the extent of the slowdown is modest. Financial markets have been weighted down by rising global risk aversion.

Signs of moderation in growth, but pace is still briskSecond quarter GDP figures for the Philippines’s (7.9% y/y) and Thailand (9.1% y/y) were  brisk, beating beat expectations. However, July indicators point to some moderation. Taiwan’s
industrial output slowed (from 24.3% y/y in June to 20.7% y/y in July), as did. Singapore’s (from 26.1% in June to 9.9% in July). Export growth for July in Hong Kong and Japan also decelerated. On the inflation front, prices crept up slightly in Singapore (3.1% y/y) due to higher food and housing costs. On the contrary, Japan’s deflation worsened in July (-0.9% y/y vs.
previous -0.7%; -0.3% m/m sa), pointing to a weak domestic demand recovery.

The Bank of Thailand raises policy rates
The BoT raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 1.75% as expected, while the Central
Bank of the Philippines left rates unchanged.

In the coming week….
August PMI in China, August trade figures for Korea, 2Q GDP in Australia and India, and a host
of inflation data (Indonesia, Korea and Thailand). Malaysia and Indonesia have their monthly
monetary policy meetings, and both are expected to leave rates unchanged.

Growth concerns and European debt keep Asian markets down

Highlights

What to watch

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International Trading


The end of August is here and that may well mean that the battle lines are redrawn tomorrow. But for now it means that the Japanese yen remains higher against all 16 of its major trading partners and the dollar’s rebound continues as investors continue to fret over the health of the U.S. economy. The fact that the dollar index is marginally lower masks a bigger move in which riskier currencies are falling hard and fast against the greenback, making for a possible explosive finale to this month’s trading.

Japanese yen – Yen strength versus the dollar is again apparent on Tuesday morning. Risk aversion was gently spoon fed to investors as the ugly process of a wind down at a long-established New Zealand finance house came to a rather final solution. Failure to find a buyer for South Canterbury Finance led to its filing for bankruptcy today hindering the domestic currency and weighing on risk sentiment. The yen’s daily advance against the dollar towards ¥84.00 still keeps it shy of last week’s ¥83.59 peak even after a former Bank of Japan policymaker stepped on his successors’ feet.
Nobuyuki Nakahara who served on the central bank’s board until 2002 warned that the Japanese economy would be unable to gain any traction until exporters were able to get back on their feet again. The only way to deter inflows directed towards the yen is to eliminate the Bank’s 0.1% official benchmark loan rate in order to reduce the spread between dollar and yen. He said that “lowering the policy rate to zero is a must to slow the yen’s gains.” Mr. Nakahara also advised the government to authorize the purchase of bonds in order to create funds for much needed public works spending programs. In New York trading the dollar buys ¥84.33 while the euro buys ¥106.92.
U.S. Dollar – The yen’s strength is masking an otherwise positive day for the dollar index, which is lower by just three basis points at 83.13 today. The dollar continues to find support from an erosion of confidence in the stock market as early sellers continue yesterday’s weakness in the S&P 500 index. Throughout August economists have become increasingly disenchanted with the future momentum in various contributors to growth. Business investment, housing and consumer spending data have each given cause for concern leading to lower GDP projections for the remainder of the year.
Euro – The euro actually gained some ground against the dollar overnight after a weak close at the start of the week. The euro this morning buys $1.2690 against the dollar and has edged up versus the pound to 82.57 pence. Earlier data released within the Eurozone showed a dip for July to a 1.6% annualized pace of increase for consumer prices while the rate of unemployment across the euro area remained static at 10%.
British pound – The pound is decidedly lower without significant reason on Tuesday. Data showed a larger than expected rise in the count for mortgage approvals for July. Earlier data was also revised higher. On Monday property company Hometrack Ltd. announced the largest monthly decline in home prices for 16 months. Despite that, a GfK NOP survey of consumer confidence released today posted its first monthly gain in six months. The pound has declined sharply to $1.5369 from $1.5460 at Monday’s close. It appears that rising risk aversion is testing investors’ mettle on the currency’s prospects.
Aussie dollar – The Aussie was equally shunned despite a decent swath of data pointing to a robust economic performance. In early New York trading it has fallen to 88.60 U.S. cents, which compares to a peak on Friday at 90.30 cents. The sharp falloff comes despite a healthy outturn for July retail sales, which easily beat expectations with a 0.7% monthly gain. At the same time, July data was revised to twice its initial pace. Building approvals also beat forecasts significantly. Data for July showed a 2.3% month-on-month pace of gain after a 3.3% dip in June. Ahead of the release analysts forecast a decline of 0.7%.
Canadian dollar – The curious moves conclude with a sharp weakening in the Canadian unit, which is back on the ropes and trading almost at its weakest point achieved during the past seven days. The vindication for slippage to the intraday low at 93.78 comes from weaker than forecast growth data released earlier. GDP for June was 0.2% as expected although the May data point was halved to a 0.1% gain. However, the second quarter figure fell short of a 2.5% forecast coming in at 2.0%. The first quarter pace was also slashed from an earlier estimate of 6.1% to 5.8% and clearly has soured the tone towards the Canadian dollar once again presumably given the closer linkage to the dollar economy.

International Trading



N. Americans have started their day by selling equities. The first data event of the day is the release of the S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices for June, which were 4.2% y/y down from the 4.61%y/y rate in May and exactly where 4Cast analysts had projected, but above the market's expected rate of 3.6% y/y. Softer equities and softer house prices are putting pressure on USD, while giving JPY a boost. EUR's ability to outperform USD while equities advance continues to confound the market. But, the simple explanation is that the month end is forcing some short covering, with questions of value and/or sovereign involvement not relevant at the current mid-range levels. M.B.

International Trading

The strength of raw material exports keeps the trade balances of Argentina, Brazil and Chile in the black. However, Brazil’s current account is deteriorating rapidly, and Mexico’s is still negative. Bank lending in Brazil slowed in June, in line with other economic activity indicators. Public spending keeps growing fast in Argentina and Peru, but is still being financed by increasing revenues. Employment figures also improved in Argentina, where the unemployment rate fell to 7.9%; however, unemployment is worsening in Venezuela, having increased to 8.7%. On the other hand, the Central Bank of Argentina announced the relaxation of the Monetary Program for the last 2 quarters and Peru’s currency strength leads the Central Bank to raise the bank reserves requirement and to S&P to ratify the solvency of public debt, changing the outlook to positive.

Fears about the global economic cycle had asymmetrical effects in Latin America due to local factors. The outlook is still positive for the region’s assets
Brazil and Mexico experienced the largest exchange rate adjustments following the release of negative economic indicators in the USA, whilst the currencies of Chile, Peru and Colombia strengthened. The appetite for LATAM issues (stocks and private debt) remains high in the face of positive economic differentiation in most of the countries in the region.

Markets

Highlights

Calendar: Events

Calendar: holidays

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International Trading

The markets have been taking a beating over the past few weeks. Plunging existing home sales, disappointing jobless claims and weak manufacturing activity numbers are to blame.

However, as you can see in the chart below one of the “positives” is the rising number of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in July and August.



Some of the billion-dollar-plus deals include:

* First Niagara Financial Group, Inc. agreeing to acquire NewAlliance Bancshares Inc. for $1.5 billion in the biggest merger of U.S. lenders since October 2008,
* Dell Inc. offering to buy 3Par Inc. for about $1.15 billion, as a way to boost its growing corporate data-center business. Then it sweetened the deal after Hewlett-Packard made a $1.6 billion offer,
* Korea National Oil Corp. making a hostile $2.9 billion bid for U.K. explorer Dana Petroleum Plc.,
* Pactiv Corp., the maker of Hefty trash bags, agreeing to be bought by Rank Group Ltd. for about $6 billion,
* Intel agreeing to pay $7.68 billion for McAfee …

And of course the one that stands out most is:

BHP Billiton Ltd.’s whopping $40 billion hostile bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., which could make 2010 the busiest year for natural resources deals.

This much M&A activity typically suggests a healthy corporate environment where companies can leverage their success into expansion.

But These Are Not Normal Times, and These Are Not Normal Markets

One key reason we’re seeing a good number of acquisitions is that interest rates are so darn low the stronger companies are able to issue dirt-cheap debt and easily find willing buyers. Then these companies can put on their predator hat and go on the hunt for vulnerable peers.

Of course many of their peers have beaten-down share prices that reflect the current, weak economic conditions. The net result: A lot of good companies that would have remained independent in a healthy economy with normal credit markets will be absorbed into the few companies with the strongest credit or cash positions.

So this is a great time for companies with access to the credit markets or a strong cash position. Unfortunately for much of the rest of corporate America, it’s time to hide under a rock.

I continue to see an active M&A environment going forward. So I believe you should consider a long M&A trade or two for your portfolio.

In fact, I am spending much of my time right now looking for potential acquisition targets. And I expect to be giving my Manera’s Universal Speculator members one or two potential trades in the coming weeks, as well as a high-probability currency trade.

International Trading

• Recently some top Czech central bankers have indicated that interest rates are too low in the Czech Republic and that rate hikes might be needed.
• In this comment we argue that the hawks on the CNB are getting a little too much ahead of the curve, as we believe that Czech interest rates are appropriate.
  
• We look at five different measures of monetary policy “tightness” – they all indicate that interest rates are appropriate – or even too high.
• We continue to recommend that investors should be positioned for lower market rates and yields in the Czech Republic.

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International Trading

Gold "Caught in Bind" as Stocks Fall, Fresh Easy Money Looms, Dow/Gold Ratio Falls

THE PRICE OF GOLD held in a tight range as London re-opened after the Summer Bank Holiday on Tuesday, slipping $3 an ounce to $1235 as world stock markets fell again to near the end of August some 6% down on the month.

Silver prices reversed an earlier 1.5% drop to trade back at $19.12 an ounce.

"A disappointing day for precious metals," says one Hong Kong dealer in a note.

"Despite its safe haven status, gold came off in tandem with stocks, re-visiting Friday's low."

The US Dollar slipped back against the Euro today, but crude oil dropped back through $74 per barrel and government bonds rose everywhere, nudging 10-year US Treasury yields back down to 2.50%.

"Gold is caught in a bind," reckons Tokyo trader Kazuhiko Saito at Fujitomi, speaking to Reuters.

"Slowing growth and deflation worries are generally negative for commodities, putting a cap on gold prices. [But] at the same time, easy monetary policy continues to keep expectations alive that investment funds will return to gold, putting a firm floor under the market."

A raft of better-than-expected data from Japan and Germany was outweighed according to several London analysts by Monday's poor Personal Income stats in the US, where income-growth continues to lag price inflation.

The Bank of Japan said yesterday it's injecting ¥10 trillion ($117bn) into commercial banking loans, with a further ¥920bn ($10bn) of economic stimulus promised by the Tokyo government.

But the Nikkei stock index still sank 3.6% on Tuesday, however, falling to a new 16-month low – even as the Japanese Yen eased back on the forex market – after New York's Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Monday down 1.4% to finish just a few points above the 10,000 mark, unchanged from April 1999.

The Dow/Gold Ratio ended Monday down at 8.1, meaning it would take a little over 8 ounces of gold at current prices to purchase one unit of the DJIA.

The ratio peaked just shy of 43 ounces in Sept. 1999. Averaging 12 ounces since 1928 – and falling to record lows of two ounces and then one ounce in 1932 and 1980 respectively – the ratio fell to a 19-year low of 7.4 ounces in Feb. 2009.

"It is a data-heavy week," says Walter de Wet at Standard Bank today, noting the release of manufacturing indices for all major economies, plus US jobless data on Friday.

"This could keep the market nervous...and US equities remain under pressure. The strength in US Treasury bonds is supported by expectations of possible bond purchases by the US Fed, and [we] view these expectations of further monetary easing as positive for gold."

Meantime, says Standard Bank's commodity team, "We continue to see gold buying in the physical market, although it has slowed. With gold closer to $1240 an ounce, there also appear to be some gold scrap-selling coming through."

Tuesday morning's sharp drop in Sterling pushed the gold price in British Pounds back above £800 an ounce – more than 8.4% above late July's three-month lows.

Euro investors wanting to buy gold today saw the price tick back towards €31,300 per kilo, meantime, just shy of last Thursday's eight-week highs.

In Germany this weekend, a row erupted over Dr Thilo Sarrazin, an executive member of Germany's central-bank, whose new book – which accuses Muslim immigrants of being a drain on the economy – has shot to the top of the best-seller charts.

A former member of the Berlin Senate, Dr Sarrazin "has repeatedly and persistently made provocative statements, especially on issues relating to immigration," the Bundesbank said in a press release on Monday, "categorically distancing" itself from his comments on Islam and "the Jewish gene", and threatening to take "prompt action".

International Trading

International Trading

Personal income rose an anemic 0.2 percent in July, which was roughly in line with expectations. In real terms, spending rose a modest 0.2 percent. Increases in hours worked helped boost wage and salary growth.

Real PCE Still on Track

• Increases in hours worked and average hourly earnings helped push personal income up a modest 0.2 percent. Seasonal quirks likely distorted data due to fewer auto plants closing during the summer months. Third quarter real PCE seems off to a reasonable start. All things holding equal, we don’t think real PCE will post a negative third quarter reading.
• Real disposable income edged down 0.1 percent.

Inflation Remains Benign

• The personal saving rate fell back a bit to 5.9 percent. Consumers remain very cautious due to a weak labor market.
• The core PCE deflator was unchanged at 1.4 percent in July on a year-ago basis. Much of the slowdown in the rate of inflation continues to be due to the oversupply of housing. Inflation remains a non-issue, which will give the Fed flexibility to keep short term interest rates low well into next year.

• Download full report with charts

International Trading

International Trading



The BOJ dominated headlines as it injected 10 trillion yen of liquidity in additional quantitative easing measures. While this move saw the Nikkei 225 surge by about +1.76%, the currency market shrugged off the news as they did not view it as aggressive enough. The BOJ did not do enough to stop the rise of the yen as the JPY-crosses corrected after the initial knee-jerk move higher following the announcement of the boost in the lending facility. While it is encouraging that the BOJ seems to be moving in the right direction, the response from the central bank was underwhelming and came as a disappointment.
U.S. Treasury yields seem to be dictating the direction of the yen. The initial weakness in the yen came on Friday after Benanke’s Jackson Hole speech elicited a rally in U.S. treasury yields, specifically the 10-year yields which currently have over a 90% correlation with USD/JPY. The yields rallied to highs around 2.66% on prospects of ‘additional monetary accommodation through unconventional measures’ as stated by the Fed Chairman. U.S. 10-years have since shed about 6 basis points from these highs subsequently dragging USD/JPY lower. It appears that the speculators are reluctant to sell the yen and continue to chase it higher. The common saying that “the trend is your friend” has benefited yen longs as the USD/JPY tumbled to current levels around 84.60 from overnight highs of around 85.90.
In Europe, Eurozone economic confidence reached its highest level since March 2008. The indicator surprised to the upside with a print of 101.8 while the market was anticipating a rise to 101.6 from the prior 101.1. The market remains undecided on EUR/USD over the past few weeks as prospects of a better Eurozone, evidenced by the stream of positive economic data has supported the euro while risk aversion which has been strengthening the greenback. EU sovereign debt issues and growth divergences between the core and peripheral nations still remain a major concern for the common currency. EUR/USD traded in a range between roughly 1.2700-1.2775 and as of now European bourses are mixed.
On the data front for the upcoming NY session is U.S. July Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditure numbers at 0830EDT. Canada’s 2Q Current Account and July Raw Materials Price Index and Industrial Product Price Index are also due out at 0830EDT. The Dallas Fed manufacturing Activity reading is due for release at 1030EDT.

International Trading

The jobs report due out on Friday are a key piece of the economic puzzle. The labor market was hit hard by the recession, sending unemployment rates flying to 9.5%. Even as the once-a-decade census temporal workers cooled down the boiling joblessness in the past few months, private payrolls have not stepped up. This week's initial jobless claims will probably serve as a prequel to the Non Farm Payrolls, and the ADP employment change will paint a clearer picture of the job creation in the private sector scenario.  Adam Narczewski, Financial analyst at X-Trade Brokers, XTB, has a rather bleak view of the situation: “The U.S labor market is in a difficult situation and I do not see an improvement coming any time soon.” Other experts and analysts tapped by Fxstreet.com agree with this opinion, expecting, on average, job losses around 124K. 

Dr. Sivaraman CEO and owner at i-knowindices.com

The expected data release could be nominally improved when compared to previous month or lesser like -115k. That could trigger risk appetite moves. The expected market moves before and after NFP event – Early European session quick rise and then drop much before NFP data release and then initial volatile moves soon after announcement followed by upward spike in EURO and GBP till end of US session for week end.

Adam Narczewski  -  Financial analyst at X-Trade Brokers, XTB

The U.S labor market is in a difficult situation and I do not see an improvement coming any time soon. The economy is struggling and I expect another monthly drop in non-farm payrolls. This time also have to take into account all the temporary workers taking part in the U.S census, performed every ten years. August was the month when those temporary workers finished their jobs so the decrease in non-farm payrolls can be larger than last month’s. The improvement in the private sector cannot be expected either as the number of jobs is growing on a decreasing rate and I expect the same this month. The ADP employment report (jobs in the private sector) might show an increase but smaller than previously while I expect the non-farm payrolls to drop by 150K (-150K).

Ilian Yotov - FX Strategist and Founder at AllThingsForex

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Situation report will have the potential to disappoint investors, especially if the private sector of the U.S. economy loses jobs in August for the first time in 2010. The consensus forecasts point to smaller jobs creation by U.S. companies, with private payrolls expected to add 44 K- a lesser amount than the 71 K jobs created in July. The non-farm payrolls are forecasted to show the U.S. economy losing between 106 K to 120 K jobs.

Sinan Saleh - Analyst at ecPulse.com

The labor market in the United States remains very weak since employers are opting not to add new jobs, especially amid the recent weakness in economic activities, as the recovery seems to be losing pace. Accordingly, we expect more layoffs to be seen over the course of August, while we should also focus on the number of added jobs in the private sector.
The Non-farm payrolls will probably be in the region of -80K to -100K, while we expect unemployment to edge higher in August to 9.6%.

Yohay Elam - Analyst at Forex Crunch

International Trading

Euro continues its slow, but constant slide this Monday, approaching to key 1.2660 support area. With 4 hours chart showing indicators bearish, crossing their midlines, and price developing under 20 SMA, if the support gives up, further falls could be seen despite slow movements, towards the 1.2620/30 support zone.

Immediate resistance comes at 1.2710/20 area, with the upside limited also by 1.2735: only a clear acceleration above this last, could change the tone, with the pair aiming to retest 1.2770/80 zone, not seen at this point.

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

International Trading


EUR/USD

Recovery off 1.2586, 24 Aug low, unfolds a bearish wedge pattern, with 1.2791/31 expected to cap. Downside break below 1.2675/65 will bring bears back in play and expose 1.2608/1.2586 next. Break above 1.2831, however, will signal further recovery exposing 1.2900 zone.

Res: 1.2778, 1.2791, 1.2831, 1.2880
Sup: 1.2665, 1.2651, 1.2608, 1.2586




GBP/USD

Remains within a corrective phase off 1.5371, with further strength looking to test 1.5610, 38.2% retracement of the 1.5997/1.5371 fall. Potential break higher will open 1.5672/89 next, otherwise, return to 1.5441/1.5371 would be likely scenario.

Res: 1.5573, 1.5596, 1.5610, 1.5617
Sup: 1.5497, 1.5465, 1.5441, 1.5400




USD/JPY

Today’s upside failure at 85.89 was followed by sharp reversal, to retrace nearly 61.8% of the latest 83.58/85.89 upleg, reaching 84.54 so far. Loss of 84.46, 38.2% and 84.26, last Friday’s low, would extend weakness towards 83.58, yearly low. Only regain of 85.19 would delay bears and possibly open 85.89 for retest.

Res: 85.19, 85.46, 85.89, 86.24
Sup: 84.46, 84.37, 84.26, 84.04




USD/CHF

Immediate downside risk hinges on 1.0335, 25 Aug lower high, as down-swings from 1.0625, 12 Aug high, extend. Break below 1.0220 low exposes risk towards this year's low at 1.0130 amid positive divergent daily studies.

Res: 1.0305, 1.0325, 1.0335, 1.0380
Sup: 1.0236, 1.0220, 1.0182, 1.0130

International Trading

We have consolidated inside a wedge which is bearish for the cross. The cross has tested the top 3 times but has not broken out so would expect a run back to the bottom of the wedge. Should it break out south look for 1.5463 and 1.5421 as the downside targets. A breakout north should produce a move to the 1.5659. It is Monday and markets are looking for direction.

International Trading

International Trading

EUR/USD Current price: 1.2703

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD


Euro lost momentum after disappointing BOJ outcome of the emergency meeting set past Asian session, and the common currency quotes at daily lows, aiming to confirm a break under 1.2700. Hourly indicators are quite bearish at this point, thus market lacks of strength and volume, waiting for US opening to inject some more. Failure to regain 1.2780 past Friday, suggest further downside could be seen if 1.2660 support gives up.

Support levels: 1.2690 1.2660 1.2620

Resistance levels: 1.2735 1.2770 1.2810

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5524

View Live Chart for the GBP/USD (Select the currency)


Trading in a tight range since Asian opening, pear holds a slightly bearish tone ahead of Wall Street opening, thus still above 1.5500; indicators, both in 1 and 4 hours charts remain bearish, keeping the upside limited at 1.5530 immediate resistance zone. Lose of 1.5470 should accelerate the fall n the cross, while only a clear confirmation above 1.5560 could reverse intraday bearish tone.

Support levels: 1.5500 1.5470 1.5430

Resistance levels:  1.5530 1.5560 1.5590

USD/JPY Current price: 84.73

View Live Chart for the USD/JPY (select the currency)


Challenging strong support area, pair erased most of past Friday’s gains, leaving primary trend intact. Turning back bearish in both 1 and 4 hours charts, pair seems pointing to a retest of intraday lows around 84.30 area, immediate support. Only a strong recovery above 85.10 could turn intraday bias slightly positive, not seen at this point.

Support levels: 84.30 84.00 83.70

Resistance levels: 85.10 85.40 85.90

USD/CHF Current price: 1.0241

View Live Chart for the USD/CHF (select the currency)


Pair regained the downside, approaching again to monthly lows around 1.0220, with hourly indicators gaining bearish momentum; bigger time frames show the same picture, with 4 hours indicators crossing upside down their midlines and current candle crossing 20 SMA. Stops should be gathered under mentioned 1.0220 level, so there is a good chance of a strong sell off, if the support is finally vulnerated.

Support levels: 1.0220 1.0190 1.0150

Resistance levels: 1.0260 1.0290 1.0330



  New to Forex? Visit our  Glossary! In this report, you will find the term Primary Trend.