USD/JPY formed an inside week pattern last week
International Trading
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
EUR/USD
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
GBP/JPY
EUR/JPY
EUR/GBP
Spot Gold
Spot Silver
THE TECHNIQUE OF GIVING A GOOD MASSAGE
14 years ago
Monday, August 23, 2010
, Posted by Usman Ali Minhas at 3:21 AM
Strategy: Sell Limit 3 at 86.00, Objs: 84.95/83.37/80.75, Stop: 87.05
USD/JPY formed an inside week pattern last week as volatility decreases as the November 2009 major swing low of 84.84 is tested. The failure to see much in the way of a bullish response to the key support level suggests that further bounces will be muted and limited to around 86.00 prior to a resumption of the major downtrend through 84.73/84.84 for the all time low of 79.75 posted in 1995. Above 86.37 from here would risk a return towards 88.12 or so before another lower high can form for new swing lows, while I would need to see settlement above 89.15 to warn of a stronger rebound back towards 92.88 as a trading range forms.Strategy: SHORT 2 at 1.5818, Objs: 1.5356/1.4893, Stop: 1.5818
Cable is seeing some corrective activity having extended the decline from the 1.5997 swing high to 1.5463 on Friday. The velocity of the breakdown (from 1.5597) adds weight to the view that the 1.4230/1.5997 May/Aug advance was either a completed correction of the decline from the August 2009 high of 1.7043, or a bullish phase within a sideways pattern dating back to January 2009. I look for loss of First Thrust support at 1.5408 to signal an attack on outside week support at 1.4948 then the bear trap level at 1.4781 ahead of the 1.4230 major swing low as the major downtrend resumes. I would need to see settlement back above 1.5816 and/or re-capture of 1.5997 to call for a push towards 1.6458 before looking for the top.
Strategy: SHORT 1 at 1.3175, Obj: 1.2375, Stop: 1.3015
EUR/USD remains under pressure after last week’s rebound stalled at the lower end of the projected resistance zone at 1.2931/1.3130. The velocity of the decline from the 1.3334 swing high adds further credence to my bearish scenario which sees the 1.1876/1.3334 as a completed correction of the decline from last November’s 1.5144 swing high to 1.1876, and I continue to expect bounces to be muted prior to breakdown towards psychological 1.2500 then outside week support at 1.2151 ahead of the 1.1876 swing low as the bear market resumes. Settlement back above 1.3106 and/or re-capture of 1.3334 from here would suggest scope for a push towards the 1.3692/1.4000 region before a top can form.
Strategy: Stand Aside
USD/CHF broke down to a new low for the 1.1731 bear swing last week although early signs of accumulation have been noted below the previous swing low at 1.0331. While 1.0534 caps the immediate risk is to the downside for a probe towards the 1.0130/1.0200 area, although the decline from the 1.1731 June swing high is viewed as a bearish phase within a large basing pattern dating back to March 2008 and I would look for bullish reversal there. Re-capture of 1.0534 and/or settlement above 1.0440 from here would suggest the low is place, with re-capture of 1.0640 signalling a likely return to the 1.0897 bull trap level then psychological 1.1500 as medium-term bulls regain control.
Strategy: LONG 2 at 1.0350, Objs: 1.0663/1.0975, Stop: 1.0350
Exited 1 unit of Long at 1.0475 and raised stop to cost. USD/CAD formed a bullish outside pattern last week confirmed a solid low at 1.0247 as bulls come back in ahead of the 1.0107 recent swing low. The swift rebound from 1.0107 trapped sellers of the break of the June swing low at 1.0138 adding weight to the bullish scenario which sees 1.0107 as the end of a corrective pullback from the 1.0853 May swing high and part of a long basing process. I look for the 1.0335/1.0423 to hold for a return to the 1.0676 reaction high then the 1.0853 swing high, breach of which would confirm the base calling for multi-month gains towards 1.1000 initially as bulls gain control. In the meantime, loss of 1.0247 would again threaten the 0.9930 April swing low as the major downtrend resumes.
Strategy: SHORT 2 at 0.9130, Objs: 0.8880/0.8630, Stop: 0.9130
Exited 1 unit of Short at 0.8880 and lowered stop to 0.9030. The Aussie is on the defensive after rejection from the projected resistance band at 0.8978/0.9098 last week. With the rebound from the May swing low of 0.8067 to 0.9221 seen as corrective and part of a topping process following the long advance dating back to October 2008 I continue to look for 0.8978/0.9098 to cap for an attack on outside week support at 0.8633 then 0.8316 ahead of the 0.8067 swing low as a new bear trend gathers pace. In the meantime, re-capture of 0.9079 then 0.9221 would again threaten an attack on key resistance at 0.9388/0.9406 before a top would be sought.
Strategy: SHORT 2 at 135.40, Objs: 131.15/126.90, Stop: 135.40
GBP/JPY remains under pressure having broken down to new lows for the 137.77 swing after a corrective bounce stalled at 134.81. The breakdown from 137.77 trapped buyers of the 136.41 June recovery high upside break signalling completion of the recovery from the 126.72 May swing low - a move which appears to be a completed corrective bounce within the decline from 163.09. I now look for an attack on the 130.83 reaction low, loss to signal an attack on the 126.72 swing low initially as the bear run resumes over coming weeks. Settlement back above 135.80 and/or re-capture of 137.77 in the meantime would call for a brief probe towards 140.00 before topping.
Strategy: SHORT 1 at 112.50, Objs: 105.50, Stop: 111.10
Exited 1 unit of Short at 109.00 and lowered stop to 111.10. EUR/JPY remains under pressure having extended the decline from 114.73 through psychological 110.00 level. The velocity of the breakdown from 114.73 signalling completion of the corrective rebound from the 107.31 June swing low and I now look for 110.43/112.53 to cap prior to breakdown through 107.31, loss of which should see an acceleration lower for 105.61 initially over subsequent weeks as the major downtrend extends. In the meantime, settlement above 112.53 and/or re-capture of 114.73 would call for a push towards 117.00/118.00 before topping, while I would need to see re-capture of 119.43 to signal a more sustainable recovery.
Strategy: Stand Aside
EUR/GBP is back on the defensive having seen a promising recovery stall at 0.8282 last week. While this level caps the immediate risk is seen to the downside for an attack on the 0.8067 swing low, loss of which could then see breakdown towards support at 0.7693 over subsequent weeks as the major downtrend extends. In the meantime, re-capture of 0.8282 then 0.8362 would offer early warning of basing ahead of 0.8067 for an attack on key resistance at 0.8531, above which would confirm a major base pattern calling for a stronger advance towards 0.8773 then psychological 0.9000 as medium-term bulls gain control.
Strategy: Stand Aside
Gold has extended the advance from the 1157.03 recent swing low to breach the 1226.56 bull trap level posted in December although early signs of stalling are noted at 1237.50. While support at 1214.05 holds the near-term risk is seen to the upside for a push towards the 1249.40 April bull trap level, settlement above which would suggest scope for a push through the 1265.30 major swing high posted back in June and then the 1300.00 handle next as the major bull run extends. In the meantime, loss of 1214.05 would add weight to the view that the 1157.03 rebound is part of a topping process, with loss of First Thrust support at 1174.50 then the 1157.03 swing low to then expose 1124.00 then 1085.30 as a new downtrend gets going.Strategy: Sell Stop 3 at 17.820, Objs: 17.090/15.995/14.170, Stop 18.550
Silver is showing clear signs of stalling on the upside as the rebound from 17.827 runs out of steam in the 18.690 area. Still, while support at 18.105 holds I can’t rule out another crack at the 18.690 minor swing high, above which could see an attack on important swing highs at 19.465 and 19.826 as bulls look to resume the major uptrend. In the meantime, loss of 17.827 would add further weight to the bearish scenario which sees a topping process forming after the long bull market, with pressure then on 17.198/17.337, loss to confirm the top pattern calling for a return to the 16.547 reaction low then 14.660 initially as the downtrend gathers pace.
Visiter
Web stat
