US Non farm payrolls not to stave off woes of double dip
International Trading
The jobs report due out on Friday are a key piece of the economic puzzle. The labor market was hit hard by the recession, sending unemployment rates flying to 9.5%. Even as the once-a-decade census temporal workers cooled down the boiling joblessness in the past few months, private payrolls have not stepped up. This week's initial jobless claims will probably serve as a prequel to the Non Farm Payrolls, and the ADP employment change will paint a clearer picture of the job creation in the private sector scenario. Adam Narczewski, Financial analyst at X-Trade Brokers, XTB, has a rather bleak view of the situation: “The U.S labor market is in a difficult situation and I do not see an improvement coming any time soon.” Other experts and analysts tapped by Fxstreet.com agree with this opinion, expecting, on average, job losses around 124K.
Dr. Sivaraman CEO and owner at i-knowindices.com
The expected data release could be nominally improved when compared to previous month or lesser like -115k. That could trigger risk appetite moves. The expected market moves before and after NFP event – Early European session quick rise and then drop much before NFP data release and then initial volatile moves soon after announcement followed by upward spike in EURO and GBP till end of US session for week end.
Adam Narczewski - Financial analyst at X-Trade Brokers, XTB
The U.S labor market is in a difficult situation and I do not see an improvement coming any time soon. The economy is struggling and I expect another monthly drop in non-farm payrolls. This time also have to take into account all the temporary workers taking part in the U.S census, performed every ten years. August was the month when those temporary workers finished their jobs so the decrease in non-farm payrolls can be larger than last month’s. The improvement in the private sector cannot be expected either as the number of jobs is growing on a decreasing rate and I expect the same this month. The ADP employment report (jobs in the private sector) might show an increase but smaller than previously while I expect the non-farm payrolls to drop by 150K (-150K).
Ilian Yotov - FX Strategist and Founder at AllThingsForex
The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Situation report will have the potential to disappoint investors, especially if the private sector of the U.S. economy loses jobs in August for the first time in 2010. The consensus forecasts point to smaller jobs creation by U.S. companies, with private payrolls expected to add 44 K- a lesser amount than the 71 K jobs created in July. The non-farm payrolls are forecasted to show the U.S. economy losing between 106 K to 120 K jobs. 
Sinan Saleh - Analyst at ecPulse.com
The labor market in the United States remains very weak since employers are opting not to add new jobs, especially amid the recent weakness in economic activities, as the recovery seems to be losing pace. Accordingly, we expect more layoffs to be seen over the course of August, while we should also focus on the number of added jobs in the private sector.
The Non-farm payrolls will probably be in the region of -80K to -100K, while we expect unemployment to edge higher in August to 9.6%.
Yohay Elam - Analyst at Forex Crunch
I believe that another significant loss of jobs will be seen in Non-Farm Payrolls - around 150,000 jobs lost. Weekly jobless claims are still high and already topped 500K. Almost all US indicators have been extremely disappointing: Philly Fed index, retail sales, durable goods orders and also housing, Add 200K workers that have still worked around the decennial census as of last month's NFP, and you have a recipe for another downfall. Special attention will be on the private sector once again, and there's a fear of a significant job loss there as well.
