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International Trading
Not much happened overnight except for selling some euro crosses. The foreign currencies futures open little changed on both sides of flat. The Asia/Pacific stock markets closed up, the European bourses are up, while the gold/spread declined. The US stock indexes are up as well in pre-open market. The European economic data was pretty decent.The short-term outlook is sideways for most of the foreign currency futures. The medium-term outlook is sideways for most of the European and commodity currencies. My model is short on the Dow Jones CME FX$INDEX and on all the European and commodity currencies except for the Swiss franc, and long yen. This Analysis Is Based On My Books, As Follows:
“Trading in the Global Currency Markets” - Prentice Hall Press, 3rd edition 2007“Technical Analysis Applications” - McGraw-Hill, 2004 Overnight:
Australia: No dataJapan: All industry activity grew by 0.1% in June, unchanged from May.Germany: The PPI rose 0.5% in July, slower than a 0.6% growth in the previous month. The annual PPI rose 3.7% year-on-year in July, faster than a 1.7% growth in June.Switzerland: The Credit Suisse - ZEW economic sentiment indicator increased by 6.9 points to 9.1 in August.Switzerland: The trade balance showed a surplus of CHF 2.88 billion in July compared to CHF 1.77 billion in June.UK: The level of public sector borrowing fell to GBP 3.2 billion in July from GBP 13.9 billion in June.UK: The latest Industrial Trends Survey from the Confederation of British Industry showed that 21% of manufacturers said that total orders were above normal and 34% said they were below. The resulting rounded balance of negative 14% was the highest since August 2008.UK: Retail sales rose 1.1% in July, following the 0.7% rise in June.
Today’s Economic Calendar:
US: Initial jobless claimsUS: Philadelphia Fed for AugustUS: Leading indicators for JulyCanada: Leading indicators for July
EUR- March
Luca Model: Short since August 9The September euro opens off its overnight lows and around the 55-day moving average. The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short. The long-term outlook remains bearish.Immediate support is at 1.2779. Below 1.2743, distant support is 1.2600 from the Ichimoku cloud.Initial resistance is at 1.2884. The 21-day moving average resists at 1.2923. Distant resistance is at 1.3020.INDICATORSFast stochastics: SidewaysMACD: Slightly bearishIchimoku: BullishOUTLOOKNEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearishMEDIUM-TERM: SidewaysLONG-TERM: Bearish JPY - March
Luca Model: Long since July 29The September Japanese yen opens off its overnight lows as well. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.Initial resistance is at 117.39. The high of the uptrend is 118.05. Distant resistance is at 118.57.Immediate support is at 116.32. The 21-day moving average supports at 116.06. Below the pivot at 115.79, distant support is at 115.05.INDICATORSFast stochastics: Slightly bearishMACD: Slightly bearishIchimoku: BullishOUTLOOKNEAR-TERM: SidewaysMEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullishLONG-TERM: Sideways GBP - March
Luca Model: Short since August 10The September pound reversed overnight losses to open above the 21-day moving average. The short-term is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.The 21-day moving average supports at 1.5607. Monday’s low is 1.5531. Distant support is at 1.5460.Above 1.5688, further next caps are 1.5711 and 1.5764.INDICATORSFast stochastics: SidewaysMACD: Slightly bearishIchimoku: BullishOUTLOOKNEAR-TERM: SidewaysMEDIUM-TERM: SidewaysLONG-TERM: Bearish CHF - March
Luca Model: Long since August 16The September Swiss franc opens slightly higher but still in an inside range. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.Initial resistance is at .9647. The top of the uptrend is .9683. Further resistance is at .9722 and .9779.Immediate support is at .9567. The 21-day moving average supports at .9538. Below 9444, a pivot low is at .9402.INDICATORSFast stochastics: BullishMACD: SidewaysIchimoku: BullishOUTLOOKNEAR-TERM: SidewaysMEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullishLONG-TERM: Sideways CAD – March
Luca Model: Short since August 6The oversold September Canadian dollar rallied to a near two-week high. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.Initial resistance is at .9782. The next cap is .9822. The top of the uptrend is .9889.The 21-day moving average supports at .9664. Below .9640, there is additional support at .9570 and .9537.INDICATORSFast stochastics: BullishMACD: SidewaysIchimoku: BullishOUTLOOKNEAR-TERM: SidewaysMEDIUM-TERM: SidewaysLONG-TERM: Sideways AUD – March
Luca Model: Short since August 10The overbought September Australian dollar reversed early losses but remains in an inside range. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.Immediate resistance is at .9000. Above .9044, further resistance is at .9107.The 21-day moving average supports at .8951. Below .8904, Monday’s low is at .8830.INDICATORSFast stochastics: SidewaysMACD: Slightly bearishIchimoku: BullishOUTLOOKNEAR-TERM: SidewaysMEDIUM-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullishLONG-TERM: Sideways
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