International Trading

The OI climbed by 13,250 contracts during the week

Monday, August 23, 2010 , Posted by Usman Ali Minhas at 2:59 AM

Buzz thisInternational Trading



Legend: Net Long Net Short Position Change
Overview: The open interest (OI) climbed by 13,250 contracts during the week, not a big change. The biggest increase in the OI was in the euro and the A$ while the biggest decrease in the OI came in the C$ and the yen. 
In the euro the large spec flipped to a short position, while the small spec flipped to a very small long position.  
All three major groups flipped their position in the pound. The biggest shift was by the large spec to the short side.
The total spec OI long another currency and by default short the dollar declined this week to 159,403 contracts down from 190,610 in the previous week. A reduction in the C$ long and a small increase in the A$ long accounted for the biggest shifts.
Small specs had the biggest percentage share of the C$, 37.6%, the SF, 27.8%. the A$, 22.8% and the yen, 20.3%  The large share of the small specs on the short side is in the yen, 22.6% and the SF at 18.5% of the total. The largest big spec long positions is in the DI, 76.7%, the NZ$, 75.8% and the A$ at 56.2% of the market. Largest large spec short positions is in the NZ$ at 25.8% and the DI with 23.4% of the total market.
USD
(1) Large Traders(1) Large Traders(2) Small Traders(2) Small Traders(3) Commercial(3) Commercial
Total OILongShortLongShortLongShort
Contracts:32,29225,5216,7754,3272,2241,51322,362
Change:3,2023,174-23-182-7891373,941
% Open Interest:79.021.013.46.94.769.3
Analysis: The OI climbed 10% during the period as the large specs bought from the commercials. Large specs are now 3.8 long  to 1 short. Small specs, not big players in this small market are a 2 to 1 long.
EUR
(1) Large Traders(1) Large Traders(2) Small Traders(2) Small Traders(3) Commercial(3) Commercial
Total OILongShortLongShortLongShort
Contracts:306,75560,31271,78957,36156,775152,024141,133
Change:16,4678,69015,8367,4103,3913,978852
% Open Interest:19.723.418.718.549.646.0
Analysis: The total OI did not change that much but the spec players were busy changing their positions. The large spec flipped from a long to a short position in the euro. The small spec also flipped positions from a short to a long, however the small spec position is very evenly balanced showing this group has little unanimity in their market assessment. Spreading which is primarily option activity is down to 12.1% of the OI.
GBP
(1) Large Traders(1) Large Traders(2) Small Traders(2) Small Traders(3) Commercial(3) Commercial
Total OILongShortLongShortLongShort
Contracts:159,15731,17234,98027,50125,23090,51588,977
Change:-5,050-2,4743,8092,262-1,511-1,773-4,282
% Open Interest:19.622.017.315.956.955.9
Analysis: It is very rare to see every major group flip their position in the same week, but this did happen with the pound during the period. The OI declined modestly which might suggest that specs were throwing in the towel on their positions. We now have the small spec and the commercial long the market and the large spec is short. Generally the two spec groups trade in concert. Often the large spec is quickest to pick up a change in market direct, and he went short the pound.
JPY
(1) Large Traders(1) Large Traders(2) Small Traders(2) Small Traders(3) Commercial(3) Commercial
Total OILongShortLongShortLongShort
Contracts:152,25463,29912,60630,83634,37351,05898,215
Change:1,023-2,421-3651781,9342,848-965
% Open Interest:41.68.320.322.633.564.5
Analysis: For most of the period the USD/JPY was trading close to the 85 handle. The lack of significant change in the OI would suggest an indifference to the market at this level. The large spec remains an unbalanced 5 to 1 long in the yen while the small spec is a modest short.
CHF
(1) Large Traders(1) Large Traders(2) Small Traders(2) Small Traders(3) Commercial(3) Commercial
Total OILongShortLongShortLongShort
Contracts:58,74317,5686,82616,33710,89022,83139,020
Change:2,5151,3045341,868-498-1,1162,021
% Open Interest:29.911.627.818.538.966.4
Analysis:  Specs were modestly on the buy side of the Swissy during the period. The large specs are now about a 2.5 to 1 long. There was little movement during the period.
CAD
(1) Large Traders(1) Large Traders(2) Small Traders(2) Small Traders(3) Commercial(3) Commercial
Total OILongShortLongShortLongShort
Contracts:107,21334,8884,56040,27018,66326,58578,521
Change:-10,195-12,180-486-5,2621,7856,859-11,882
% Open Interest:32.54.337.617.424.873.2
Analysis:  The OI was down during the period as the large spec liquidated a big portion of their long. Despite the selling the large spec is still a 7.5 to 1 long. Small specs likewise sold part of their long and added to their short. With 37.6% of the total OI the small specs are the biggest players on the long side of the loonie.
NZD
(1) Large Traders(1) Large Traders(2) Small Traders(2) Small Traders(3) Commercial(3) Commercial
Total OILongShortLongShortLongShort
Contracts:23,62717,5955,4562,8031,7653,22916,406
Change:-1,409-1,397-992-6086771,340-350
% Open Interest:74.523.111.97.513.769.4
Analysis: The large spec now owns 74.5% of the total OI in this very small market but was a seller during the period of both longs and shorts. Small specs remain a small long though they did reduce their long and increase their short.
AUD
(1) Large Traders(1) Large Traders(2) Small Traders(2) Small Traders(3) Commercial(3) Commercial
Total OILongShortLongShortLongShort
Contracts:128,64371,24313,45229,33617,90524,60893,830
Change:6,6972,733-713872-222,6867,026
% Open Interest:55.410.522.813.919.172.9
Analysis: There was a small increase in the OI during the week as both large and small specs bought a little and modestly reduced their shorts. The large spec is now a 5 to 1 long. The election was yesterday and with over 70% of the vote counted the results are too close to call. The spec position in the A$ is the biggest one that by default is short the USD.

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