Current and former Japanese officials speak on JPY currency
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
, Posted by Usman Ali Minhas at 3:46 AM
European Market Update: Current and former Japanese officials speak on JPY currency; German ZEW survey disappoints but remains positive on 2010 GDP outlook
Economic Data
- (FI) Finland July PPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 6.7% v 5.2% prior
- (SW) Sweden July Average House Prices (SEK): 1.908M v 2.04M prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Current Account: -€4.6B v -€7.5B prior; Current Account NSA: +€ v -€17.9B prior
- (HK) Hong Kong July Unemployment Rate: 4.3% v 4.5%e
- (UK) July CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.1%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 2.6% v 3.1%e
- (UK) July RPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.9%e; RPI Ex Mortgage Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.8%e; Retail Price Index: 223.6 v 224.1 prior
- (GE) Germany Aug ZEW Economic Sentiment: 14.0 v 20.0e; Current Situation: 44.3 v 24.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug ZEW Economic Sentiment: 15.8 v 9.3e
Fixed Income:
- (SP) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €5.51b in 12-month and 18-month Bills versus €5.5B indicated
- Sold € in 12-month Bills; avg yield 1.83% v 2.221% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.47x v 1.95x prior
- Sold € in 18-month Bills; avg yield 2.08% v 2.331% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.86x v 2.44x prior
- (IR) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) sold total €1.5B in 2014 and 2020 bonds v €1.5B indicated
- Sold €500M in 2014 bonds, avg yield 3.627% v 3.11% prior, bid-to-cover 5.4x v 3.1x prior
- Sold €1.0B in 2020 bond,; avg yield 5.386% v 5.537% prior; bid-to-cover 2.4x v 3.0x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sold HUF60B in 3-month Bills; avg yield 5.28% v 5.33% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.3x v 2.7x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sells total €2.82B in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- Sold €804M in 3-month; avg yield 0.430%; Bid-to-cover: 4.6x
- Sold €2.02B in 12-month Bills; avg yield 0.666%; Bid-to-cover: 1.9x
- (DE) Denmak Sells DKK4.0B in 2013 bonds, avg yield 1.12%, bid-to-cover 2.17x
- ECB alloted €155.2B in main 7-day main refi operation at fixed 1.0%; Received 109 bids
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
Notes/Observations
- Decent Spain and Irish auction results
Equities:
- As of 5:45am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index +0.8% at 2,718; DAX Index +0.8% at 6,162; CAC-40 Index +1.0% at 3,631 and FTSE 100 Index +0.8% at 5,320
- Danish brewer Carlsberg [CARLB.DE] reported a stronger than expected net earnings and a revenue in line with estimates. Profitability also increased as evidenced by the operating margin and the company raised its forecast for the year's operating profit and net growth. Russian market is also expected to decline less. Shares opened up by 2.9% following the results.
- Cewe Color's [CWC.GE] net and EBIT loss had narrowed this year and revenues were better than last year. Company reiterated forecast.
- Among Swiss names Galenica [GALN.SZ], Switzerland's largest drug wholesaler, reported better than expected earnings and expected revenues to be in line with last year's result. But sales would be impacted by the strengthening of the Swiss franc and political pressure on healthcare. Nonetheless, shares raised by 2.8%. Schindler [SCHP.SZ] was the big winner on the Swiss index after reporting rising revenues which were also better than expected. Order received and backlog were also higher than last year figures and raised outlook for the net profit in 2010. Shares advanced by 1.5%. Oerlikon [OERL.SZ] also climbed by 4.8% after narrowing its loss from last year and reporting rising revenues. Reported an increase of 15% of orders and expected to return to profitability in 2011.
- Resolution [RSL.UK] rose 3.7% following its operating profit of £203M compared with last year's loss of £7M These result include Friends Provident which the company bought last year.
Speakers:
- Reportedly BoJ believes that recent yen strength does NOT pose an immediate threat to the Japanese real economy and that the recent rise in yen was not too fast to impact business sentiment. Thus the BoJ stands by standard G7 communiquthat excessive volatility would be undesirable. BOJ would view rapid and choppy yen appreciation as a concern. The BOJ believes that the degree and speed of recent yen rise are different from gains seen last year.
- Japan Econ Min Arai commented that the JPY currency appreciation might be in its final phase but caution that it might not cease with verbal intervention. He reiterated the gov't and BOJ view that it needs to watch JPY currency movements at this time
- Former MoF Watanabe commented that the current price action in yen were stable; Action not needed at this time to limit the rise in yen
- Former MOF official Sakakibara (aka Mr. Yen): Yen currency may hit all time high against USD by end-Sept (implies sub 79.70 level); EUR/JPY cross could move lower to test the 100 level Japan's PM Kan commented that he would discuss relevant issues with ministers as to whether there is a need to come up with additional economic stimulus measures
- UK Chancellor Osborne: Making good progress in budget cuts. He added that the budget has helped to stabilized the economy and reduced market interest rates.
- China PBoC to allow overseas yuan currency clearing banks to invest in yuan in mainland bond markets as part of the internationalization of the Yuan currency
- German Zew Economists: Recent Q2 growth rate is unlikely to continue
-BOE Inflation letter to Chancellor Osborne: Central view remains that temporary factors are pushing up inflation and reiterates medium term view that it will meet 2% target. Recent high inflation has been a surprise and attributes it to VAT increase, higher oil prices and weaker GBP currency. BOE will likely have to write more letters to Chancellor explaining CPI overshoot. The BOE stands ready to expand or reduce monetary stimulus
Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD saw mixed price action in the session as the focus continues to be on potential BOJ currency intervention. Current and former Japanese officials continued their verbal intervention in the JPY to little effect to move the USD/JPY away from the 85.30 level in the session. Former MOF official Sakakibara (aka Mr. Yen) believes that JPY currency might hit all time high against USD by end-Sept (which would be below the 79.75 level in usd/jpy pair). That level might be in play if the rumored BOJ view is correct that it believes the recent yen strength did NOT pose an immediate threat to the Japanese real economy. The EUR/USD tested above the 1.29 handle despite a 'below expectations' of the German Aug ZEW economic sentiment. The Spanish and Irish bond auction results did not flame any negative implications. The ZEW economist added that they continued to see 2010 GDP growth in Germany at 3% even the current pace did stagnate. The GBP/USD pair was a bit choppy in the session as CPI data was a bit softer than expected. The BOE still had to write an inflation letter to the exchequer explaining the elevated CPI level and reiterated their medium term view that the 2% target will be achieved by 2012.
In The Papers-Geopolitical:
- Following the announcement of strikes last week by Britain's Unite union, the strike has been averted after new pay offer was scheduled to be voted on. Though initial details were limited, further announcements are to be released later today.
- The Financial Times commented on low levels of bond purchases by the ECB despite renewed sovereign debt concerns. In particular, the article noted that the ECB only bought €10 million last week following the €9 million bought last week, both which are negligible next to the billions of Euros bought in May. The ECB is displaying confidence that European financial system has returned to more normal conditions.
Looking Ahead
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGP-10: 0.5%e v 0.1% prior
- 7:00 (EU) ECB to drain €60.5B at 7-day Term- deposit auction
- 7:45 (US) ICSC weekly chain store sales
- 8:00 (PD) Poland July Avg Gross Wages M/M: 2.6%e v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: 3.8%e v 3.5% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland July Employment M/M: 0.2% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.1% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Jun Int'l Securities Transactions: C$9.3Be v C$23.2B prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Jun Manufacturing Sales M/M: -0.5%e v 0.4% prior
- 8:30 (US) July Producer Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v -0.5% prior; PPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior
- 8:30 (US) July Housing Starts: 560Ke v 549K prior; Building Permits: 580Ke v 583K prior (revised)
- 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook retail sales
- 9:00 (US) Treasury Sec Geithner
- 9:15 (US) July Industrial Production: 0.5%e v 0.1% prior; Capacity Utilization: 74.5%e v 74.1% prior
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota
- 16:00 (BR) Brazil July Tax Collections (BRL): 66.1Be v 61.5B prior
- 16:30 (US) EIA weekly energy inventories
- 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Aug 15th: No est v -47 prior
