Canada: A rebound in full−time jobs in August
Friday, September 10, 2010
, Posted by Usman Ali Minhas at 8:48 AM
Canadian employment: a public sector rebound in August
Latest (monthly change): +35.8k (Actual); +30.0k (expected)Previous: -9.3k
FACTS: Total employment increased 35.8K in August following a drop of 9.3K in July. Significant gains were observed in full-time employment (+79.9K) while part-time jobs (-44.1K) posted a big decline. Despite the positive headline number, the goods-producing sector slightly retreated in August (-8.2K) following a strong rise in July (+42K). The largest losses came from manufacturing (- 25.6K) while construction (+12.0K) and natural resources (+9.3K) mitigated the fall. The service producing sector jumped 43.9K with the largest gains coming from educational services (+68.4K) and professional, scientific and technical services (+28.3K). On the other hand, business, building & other support services (-18.7K) and information, culture and recreation (-18.1K) were the worst performers. At the provincial level, eight of ten provinces showed increased in employment with Quebec (+19.4K) and Ontario (+6.3K) showing the largest gains. The unemployment rate edged up 0.1 percentage points to 8.1%. Total hours worked were flat (SA) during the month and the average hourly wage rate was up 0.3% m/m (SA).
OPINION: This morning’s report showed a good headline number. Full-time jobs rebounded in August with a 79.9K increase. Most of the headcounts reflected a 68.4K jobs reversal in educational services. That said, the details of the report are less impressive. Private sector shed 39.9K jobs, the biggest decline in 13 months. More than 60% of this decline came from manufacturing. This may have been caused by the retooling season in the automobile sector. We still have to wait for another report or two to see the true underlying trend in this component. That said, despite the drop in private employment, the wage bill is still expanding in Canada. After a solid increase of 0.9% in July, the wage bill was up another 0.3% in August. Thus, on a quarterly annualized basis, the wage bill is up 4% with one month left in the quarter. There is no doubt that the Canadian expansion continues.
