Investors to Focus on Private Sector Hiring This Morning
Saturday, September 4, 2010
, Posted by Usman Ali Minhas at 9:25 AM
Let’s take a look at today’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. The big picture still suggests we are in a jobless recovery. The focus of today’s report will be on the private sector. An anemic jobs number is likely to cause companies to continue to conserve cash and refrain from hiring.
One key factor that remains a major concern is the high level of the weekly jobless claims number.
Investors should remember not to focus too much on the labor rate. Some people think that 10% unemployment is a major psychological level. Remember that the jobs rate may be high because the labor force is decreasing. Some unemployed people are giving up on their job searches, leading to a decrease in the number of people actually looking for work.
Today’s estimate is for a loss of between 106k and 130K jobs. The mid-point is 118K. Briefing.com’s consensus is 120K. Bloomberg.com’s survey ranged from a decline of 12,000 to a 120,000 increase with a survey median of -105,000.
Needless to say the ranges are quite wide which means the emphasis will most likely be on the private sector number which is estimated to show an increase of 40,000. I believe that this is the number that will fuel the markets’ reaction.
Today’s NFP number should fuel a typical asset allocation move. A bullish number is likely to drive stocks higher, Treasurys lower and gold lower. A bearish number will not be good for stocks, lend support to the Treasuries and gold.
