Comment: A gentle downward-sloping ‘channel’ has dominated price action over the last year, sterling pushed lower by a very large weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Prices are currently consolidating around 135.00 (61% Fibonacci retracement) having hit important support at the psychological level of 130.00 late May (low 126.70). The low in April 1995 was 128.20, ahead of January 2009’s record 118.80. Therefore during H2 2010 we shall continue to favour a very lengthy and tortuous basing process, ideally at 130.00/128.20 but without ruling out a sudden, sharp ‘spike low’.

A monthly close above 140.00 hints that an interim low might be in place.