International Trading

US Dollar Sentiment Favors Losses Ahead of Pivotal NFP Report

Thursday, August 5, 2010 , Posted by Usman Ali Minhas at 11:00 AM

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The FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index is an excellent tool to gauge trader positioning and sentiment in the FX market. Unlike major equities or futures markets, there is no single centralized exchange for forex trading. Such decentralized activity makes finding uniform volume or open interest data impossible. DailyFX fills the gap by offering access to FXCM’s proprietary volume and positioning information—giving an unparalleled view of forex market sentiment.
LastWeekPresent%LongChange: Open InterestSignals
EUR/USD-1.50-1.3143.0%-8.8%Bullish
GBP/USD4.944.4982.0%7.6%Bearish
USD/JPY-1.75-1.7836.0%1.6%Bullish
USD/CHF3.773.0075.0%-21.3%Bearish
USD/CAD2.191.9166.0%60.5%Bearish
GBP/JPY-1.03-1.0150.0%5.4%Bullish

EURO FORECAST CALLS FOR GAINS AGAINST DOLLAR

euruusd
EURUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.31 as nearly 57% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.25 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.4% lower than yesterday and 1.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.9% weaker than yesterday and 4.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

BRITISH POUND LIKELY TO RALLY FURTHER

gbpusd
GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.80 as nearly 64% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.86 as 65% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.2% lower than yesterday and 0.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.3% lower than yesterday and 2.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.2% weaker than yesterday and 13.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

JAPANESE YEN OUTLOOK BULLISH ON SENTIMENT

usdjpy
USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 4.52 as nearly 82% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.57 as 82% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.5% lower than yesterday and 5.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.5% lower than yesterday and 15.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.3% weaker than yesterday and 25.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

SWISS FRANC MAY STRENGTHEN AGAINST DOLLAR

usdchf
USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.98 as nearly 75% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.70 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.8% higher than yesterday and 25.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 38.4% lower than yesterday and 5.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.3% weaker than yesterday and 1.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

CANADIAN DOLLAR FORECAST TO APPRECIATE AGAINST GREENBACK

usdcad
USDCAD - ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.91 as nearly 66% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.66 as 62% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 9.1% higher than yesterday and 53.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.8% lower than yesterday and 76.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% stronger than yesterday and 75.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

BRITISH POUND DIRECTION UNCLEAR AGAINST JAPANESE YEN

gbpjpy
GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.02 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.23 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.0% higher than yesterday and 5.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.1% lower than yesterday and 4.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.6% weaker than yesterday and 11.2% above its monthly average. The relatively neutral SSI ratio gives few clues on to what to expect through short-term GBPJPY trading.

Weekly Overview

US Dollar Sentiment Favors Losses Ahead of Pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls Report
talb
Continued US Dollar declines have been met with forex trading crowd buying, giving contrarian signal to stay short the USD versus the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and Canadian Dollar. Such one-sided crowd positioning underlines the extent to which the US Dollar has fallen and that short-term momentum remains firmly to the downside. Yet tomorrow’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report may very well prove pivotal for the short-term trajectory of the downtrodden USD. Several key Greenback pairs remain near key technical levels, and it will be critical to watch market reactions to said news event. Though overall momentum favors losses, direction can and change switch in an instant.



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